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We improved the tsunami simulation code JAGURS, which is a paralleled version of URSGA code for a large-scale, high-speed tsunami prediction in the Nankai trough, Japan. Yukinobu Okamura, Masanobu Shishikura, New hypothesis to explain Quaternary forearc deformation and the variety of plate boundary earthquakes along the Suruga–Nankai Trough by oblique subduction of undulations on the Philippine Sea Plate, Earth, Planets and Space, 10.1186/s40623-020-01183-5, … We optimized the loop kernel for velocity update and intergrid communication on a three-dimensional torus network. The reports stated that if a 9.0 earthquake occurred on the Nankai Trough… It reveals the underwater structure of the currents, unlike satellite observations, which only show surface conditions. But it will still not be enough. Therefore, the speed of sound at each depth can be used to help create a profile of the sea water’s characteristics for research purposes. If you are happy for us to contact you in this way, please tick below. Physical oceanographers study ocean currents and flows of water using observations and computer models. The last Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes occurred in 1944 and 1946 respectively. Two high SDR zones were also identified in which there are no historical records of previous earthquakes. The results of the calculation show that the probability become higher in areas with deeply indented coastlines. This is thanks to constant and great technological progress. As a result, the areas that could be hit by tsunami that are at least 3 meters high with a possibility of 26% or higher would cover islets from Tokyo to Miyazaki Prefecture. The Nankai Trough … And if it is in the Nankai Trough, it might be a huge quake." An earthquake instability model is formulated for recurring great earthquakes at the Nankai Trough subduction zone in southwest Japan. Stonehouse Lying a little further south is the Nankai Trough. Nature, 534(7607), 374. A Nankai Trough earthquake is predicted to occur in Japan, causing catastrophic damage over a large area. United Kingdom What other applications are there for the technology? Dr Yokota and his team created such a profile and compared the results of existing measurement techniques, showing that GNSS-A can be used to measure current flow paths. It is estimated that there will be at least 9,300 critically ill patients1 who need to be transported out of the affected areas. The committee calculated the possibility of tsunami as of Jan. 1, 2020, with reference to magnitude-8 or 9-class earthquakes along the Nankai Trough that had happened once in about 100 or 200 years. It is predicted that the quake will cause a massive tsunami that could devastate the extensive coastline along the Pacific Ocean, from Shizuoka to Miyazaki (throughout central to west Japan). Previous geodetic studies attempting to create a mapping of the SDR have been limited by the fact that the observation network was limited to land areas and so did not capture the full picture for the seafloor. would be most effective for dealing with a Nankai Trough Earthquake, which may take any of a great variety of forms. Therefore, understanding the distribution of SDR in the zone is key to predicting the scale of future earthquakes and tsunamis. This is the first time that the government has presented tsunami probabilities. Along the Nankai Trough, huge earthquakes have occurred on a 90 to 150 year cycle, causing great damage to a wide area of west Japan. You can change your preferences or unsubscribe by clicking the unsubscribe link in the footer of any email you receive from us, or by contacting us at audience@researchoutreach.org at any time and if you have any questions about how we handle your data, please review our privacy agreement. The fear is that 323,000 people could be killed in devastation that would be far worse than that caused in the 2011 quake that rocked the country Credit: AFP. The seafloor geodetic observation network along the Nankai Trough, Sagami Trough and Japan Trench has been under construction since the 2000s. The Tokai, the Tonankai and Nankai Earthquake occurred in near future are predicted as this type. The report therefore proposed that if a strong earthquake hits the eastern part of the Nankai Trough, people on the west side, where there is no damage from the first earthquake… Would you like to learn more about our services? ÑW À v ]vP } ]o Z} v }À] ]vP } ] ] v(} u ]}v It is necessary to carefully disseminate information related to the Nankai Trough Earthquake so that … Do you think the prediction of large earthquakes and tsunamis in the region is going to be easier as a result of this new data? Copyright © 2021 Eleven Media Group Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. However, the lower SDR zones observed in between the high SDR zones could regulate earthquake dynamics, as happened in the 1944 Tonankai earthquake when an earthquake was halted in a low SDR zone. It is the Nankai Trough earthquake that is said to occur there. 320,000 casualties are predicted nationwide with 59,000 of them in Kyushu, of which 42,000 are expected to be in Miyazaki Prefecture. These are generally referred to as Nankai Trough Earthquakes. The distance between the surface acoustic transducer and each seafloor transponder is determined by acoustic ranging: i.e. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License. Since 2008, the GNSS-A measurement system has been mounted on the observation vessel permanently, with the acoustic transducer mounted on the hull and the GNSS antenna mounted on the top of the main mast, in order to improve the accuracy of the measurements. It is predicted that the quake will cause a massive tsunami that could devastate the extensive coastline along the Pacific Ocean, from Shizuoka to Miyazaki (throughout central to west Japan). The 26% possibility means that an event is expected to happen once in 100 years, while 6% means that a tsunami is expected to occur once in 500 years, the committee said. A mega-quake and tsunami are forecast along the Pacific coast near central to western Japan. It is probably because 1 Introduction The earthquake prediction research is a typical Type 2 Basic Research. Hana Prefectures off the Pacific Ocean are likely to be hit by earthquakes of magnitude 7 and 6. He then worked at the Hydrographic and Oceanographic Department of the Japan Coast Guard. The committee calculated the possibility of tsunami as of Jan. 1, 2020, with reference to magnitude-8 or 9-class earthquakes along the Nankai Trough that had happened once in about 100 or 200 years. Yokota, Y., Ishikawa, T., Watanabe, S. I., Tashiro, T., & Asada, A. 00:01:45:18 The map zooms outwards, revealing the whole Pacific Ocean. The detection of the SDR time change (or long-term slow slip event) will be reported in the very near future. The model is quasistatic, two-dimensional, and has a displacement and velocity dependent constitutive law applied at the fault plane. Damage predictions in Mie Prefecture, if the Nankai Trough Earthquake occurs, will be approximately 9,200 deaths caused by the earthquake and 42,000 deaths caused by tsunami. 2018-07-29 9:42 pm by Yamamoto. A report was released yesterday detailing the effects should an M9 earthquake and tsunami occur in the Nankai Trough. The sea surface equipment is located on a survey vessel. Damage predictions in Mie Prefecture, if the Nankai Trough Earthquake occurs, will be approximately 9,200 deaths caused by the earthquake and 42,000 deaths caused by tsunami. The Geospatial Information Authority of Japan has established a dense GNSS observation network called GEONET, which has detected interplate earthquake cycles and various slow-slip events on interplate boundaries. New technology for earthquake prediction: Nankai Trough, Japan Dr Yusuke Yokota and colleagues at the University of Tokyo are developing so-called GNSS-A technology, which combines satellite positioning technology (GNSS) and acoustic positioning technology (A) to create precise observations of the seafloor position. Dr Yokota and his team’s data were able to reveal most previously unknown undersea regions, except for some of the areas directly adjacent to the Nankai Trough. By contrast, … In 2012, the government released its estimates on the highest tsunami in case of a Nankai Trough earthquake. Share: You can copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format, Your email address will not be published. Nankai Trough, Japan." Kanto Earthquake in 1923 and the Nankai Earthquake in 1946. E: audience@researchoutreach.org. In 2012, the government released its estimates on the highest tsunami in case of a Nankai Trough earthquake. The group’s plans for a continuous monitoring system will mean that ocean currents can be observed, contributing to the field of oceanography as well as earthquake sciences and predictions. Predicted Nankai Trough quake could cause 3-meter or higher tsunami in 10 prefs in 30 yrs, စီးပွားရေးနယ်ပယ်မှထင်ရှားမှုနှင့်ထူးခြားမှုများ, စာပေအနုပညာနယ်ပယ်မှကျော်ကြားသူများနှင့်ထင်ရှားမှုများ, Japan to incorporate carbon neutrality goal into law, CE: Hong Kong will continue to be an international city, Samut Sakhon Covid-19 cases shoot up by another 146, bringing the total number of new cases to 689, S. Korea, US need to work together in Asia but first set objectives: officials. ccording to estimates of damages reviewed in May 2019 by the government’s Central Disaster Management Council, the number of deaths and missing persons if the quake occurs could be up to 231,000, while that of buildings destroyed or burned could be up to 2.094 million. Dr Yokota and his team used their measurement techniques to calculate a sound speed profile roughly from the sea surface to the bottom in order to study the characteristics of the ocean water. They total 71 municipalities in 10 prefectures, including all coastal cities, towns and villages in Kochi Prefecture. The observation systems [An interplate megathrust earthquake] is predicted in the near future along the Nankai Trough off southwestern Japan. The committee has called on municipalities to use the estimates to strengthen their disaster prevention measures, while asking individuals to utilize the estimates to prepare for their evacuation. The government's Earthquake Research Committee has released estimates on the likelihood of tsunamis hitting Japan's shores in event of a major Nankai Trough temblor, whose chances of … In addition, the strong measures to be taken after the Tokai Earthquake prediction There are over 15 observation sites along the Nankai Trough: six established before the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake, and others deployed subsequently in order to produce a complete picture of the SDR distribution. Predictions suggest that the next earthquake in the region will occur in the near future, so monitoring systems are needed to interpret an interplate boundary condition and try and predict when and where this may occur. A major earthquake is expected to strike sometime along the Nankai Trough, a submarine trench running off the Japanese archipelago from around Shizuoka Prefecture in … Experts believe there is a 70% to 80% probability of a severe Nankai Trough earthquake within 30 years. The Japanese government predicts that an earthquake of immeasurable scale will strike Japan along the Nankai-Trough within the next 30 years. The GNSS-A technique combines satellite radiowave data with acoustic data measured from under the sea. Figure 1 illustrates the location of the Nankai Trough together with the epicenter of the 2011 earthquake and the resulting tsunami areas. The Japanese government has released a new projection that nearly 10 million people will seek refuge if a large earthquake occurs in the Nankai Trough region. Thank you for expressing interest in joining our mailing list and community. The quake could produce massive tsunami waves, resulting in over 300,000 deaths and economic damage totaling 220 trillion yen ($2 trillion), according to a government estimate. If time changes can be detected, the detailed state before the earthquake can be known, and this will lead to great progress. This kind of earthquake occurs when the deformation recovers after the deformation with plate’s sinking in reaches its limit. Required fields are marked *, Research Outreach More than 70 years have passed since the … Info on Nankai Trough quake to be issued The new information is to come in 2 types -- emergency and regular. Below you can select how you’d like us to interact with you and we’ll keep you updated with our latest content. Although Nankai Trough Earthquakes occurred with a roughly 100 - 150 year cycle, they have various repetition intervals and source regions. The researchers aim to continue monitoring the region in order to investigate whether the interplate SDR distributions change over time. While the government estimates there is a 70 to 80 percent chance of a magnitude 8 to 9 quake occurring along the Nankai Trough within the next 30 … Gradient field of undersea sound speed structure extracted from the GNSS-A oceanography, https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.885139, https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Yusuke_Yokota4, http://sgoi.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/index_e.html, http://sgoi.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/figure/pamphlet_190724e.pdf, https://www1.kaiho.mlit.go.jp/KOHO/chikaku/kaitei/sgs/datalist_e.html, https://researchoutreach.org/articles/new-technology-for-earthquake-prediction-nankai-trough-japan, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License, Preventing aluminium oxide contamination of dental implant surfaces. But this time, it showed the degrees of urgency for tsunami that have a high possibility of occurring. The Nankai Trough earthquake is a type of megathrust earthquake anticipated to occur along the Nankai Trough off the Pacific coast. Shortly after the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake, new reports were released which indicated the significant likelihood of another magnitude 9 earthquake occurring elsewhere in Japan, this time on the Nankai Trough. Along the Nankai Trough, megathrust earthquakes with a magnitude 8 or more occur repeatedly. The measurements are made from a survey vessel. Satellite geodesy using electromagnetic waves enables the distance of the earth from the satellite to be determined precisely (onshore), but the position of the seafloor cannot be accurately determined by electromagnetic waves due to scattering and absorption of the waves by seawater. We are able share your email address with third parties (such as Google, Facebook and Twitter) in order to send you promoted content which is tailored to your interests as outlined above. Yomiuri Shimbun writes that in areas between the Tokai and Tonankai troughs, and along Nankai Trough, magnitude-8 earthquakes occur every 100 … We use cookies to gather data about how you use our site. Dr Yokota, his team, and seniors have spent two decades developing a new approach to obtaining seafloor geodetic information for the entire region. While the government estimates there is a 70 to 80 percent chance of a magnitude 8 to 9 quake occurring along the Nankai Trough within the next 30 years, the survey underscores the increasing difficulty of precisely predicting the timing, location and strength of imminent quakes, based on observational data. These are generally referred to as Nankai Trough Earthquakes. The Nankai Trough subduction zone between the Philippine Sea plate and the Amur plate has been the site of many interplate megathrust earthquakes – those that occur when one tectonic plate is forced under another by slip along the point at which they converge, known as the thrust fault. Therefore, they have accumulated slip deficit, and could drive shallow ruptures and tsunamis near the trench axis. Seventy-one municipalities in 10 prefectures, including Tokyo, on the Pacific coast could be hit by tsunami at least 3 meters high within 30 years if a huge earthquake happens in the Nankai Trough (see below), according to the estimated probability of tsunami by the government’s Earthquake Research Committee. Available at: https://researchoutreach.org/articles/new-technology-for-earthquake-prediction-nankai-trough-japan (Accessed YYYY/MM/DD). An earthquake that is estimated to happen with in 30 years with a probability of 70% to 80% in the areas along the Nankai Trough, which stretches from Suruga Bay in Shizuoka Prefecture to the sea off Kyushu. To be ready for a national crisis should the Nankai Trough Mega Earthquake occur, we are making every effort to promote various operations. T: +44 1453 827 934 Its frequency is generally said every several hundred years. Observing seafloor structure for earthquake monitoring ... the government’s earthquake-preparedness program was based on an assumption that it would be possible to predict the so-called Tokai quake that could hit the Pacific side of central Japan. Nankai Trough quake damage to cost $2.3 trillion. Seafloor geodetic constraints on interplate coupling of the Nankai Trough megathrust zone. A future great earthquake involving rupture along this and possibly other segments has been proposed as a major risk for the southern coast of Honshu. The Nankai Trough Earthquake, predicted to occur in the Mie prefecture of Japan, serves as the case study. The area from Shikoku to Tōkai is expected to suffer damage from a large Nankai Trough earthquake, which occurs approximately every 100 to 150 years. Westend Yokota Y. The sequence also revealed that inland earthquakes preceded great offshore earthquakes which occurred along the Nankai trough. Your email address will not be published. In January 2019 he was appointed Lecturer at Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo (Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, University of Tokyo). The data was used to obtain an SDR distribution through collaboration with the onshore GEONET data – this was better than results from onshore data alone which cannot resolve offshore interplate boundaries. The areas that tsunami at least 5 meters high could reach total 29 municipalities in seven prefectures. To be ready for a national crisis should the Nankai Trough Mega Earthquake occur, we are making every effort to promote various operations. Today, with quake prediction as a science all but abandoned, the Tokai quake is being dwarfed by talk of the latest new threat — the feared Nankai Trough earthquake. The Asahi Shimbun An anticipated offshore mega-quake in the Nankai Trough within 30 years would generate tsunami at least 3 meters high smashing into dozens of municipalities along a … Research OUTREACH (111). Given the assumption that the number of patients By selecting any of the topic options below you are consenting to receive email communications from us about these topics. He has predicted that the catastrophic tremor in question would take place in Japan, the region of Nankai Trough near the Pacific coast, exactly at … The observation system consists of a seafloor unit with multiple acoustic mirror transponders (devices for receiving and emitting an acoustic signal), and a sea surface unit with an acoustic transducer (a device for converting the acoustic signal into electric signals), a GNSS antenna-receiver and a dynamic motion sensor, to measure the attitude (tilt) of the survey vessel. 00:01:31:17 DR MARYANNE DEMASI: Just 900km south of Japan's island of Honshu, the Nankai Trough lies along the Pacific Ring of Fire, where 90% of the world's earthquakes occur. This effort has focused on a seafloor observation network using a combined Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS; e.g., Global Positioning System) and acoustic ranging technique. west side of the Nankai Trough is called Nankai earthquake (Figs. In 1999, the likelihood of the occurrence of a great earthquake in the Tokai area in the period 2000-2010 was estimated to be in the range of 0.35–0.45. AMDA Platform for Nankai Trough Earthquake Disaster Strategy The committee calculated the possibility of tsunami as of Jan. 1, 2020, with reference to magnitude-8 or 9-class Further analysis showed that three of the regions studied had very-low-frequency-earthquake (so-called VLFE) activity: these were the regions with low SDR values, confirming that low SDR is linked to VLFE activities. Megathrust earthquakes are driven by accumulated interplate slip deficit – so historic megaquakes are thought to have occurred on an interplate boundary with a high slip deficit rate (SDR). By clicking below to submit this form, you acknowledge that the information you provide will be transferred to MailChimp for processing in accordance with their Privacy Policy and Terms. A new measurement approach Probability of … Although Nankai Trough Earthquakes occurred with a roughly 100 - 150 year cycle, they have various repetition intervals and source regions. The Nankai Trough extends from off the coast of central Japan to the southwest. 2019, "New technology for earthquake prediction In the near future, changes in SDR over time and detection of SSE will be reported. A message on Twitter claimed: "This is no doubt evidence of a precursor to an earthquake. Our findings provide information for inferring megathrust earthquake scenarios and interpreting research on the Nankai Trough subduction zone. The speed of sound in water increases with increasing water temperature, increasing salinity and increasing pressure (depth). The tsunami probability on a regional basis, which was released Friday by the committee, shows that tsunami that destroy wooden houses could reach 71 municipalities in 10 prefectures, including Shizuoka, Kochi and Wakayama, with an “extremely high” possibility of 26% or higher. New damage estimates were released on Monday. According to the committee, it estimated about 350,000 tsunami patterns that could be caused by the Nankai Trough earthquake. Four phases and seven key tasks “Life-saving” phase Task 1 Disseminate timely information, and fully support evacuation from mega tsunami’s landfall in … This helps us improve how our site works and ensures we offer you the best content. (2016). The Nankai earthquakes or the giant earthquakes that occur off the coast of Shikoku and Kii Peninsula are recorded frequently in the ancient documents. the seafloor transponders receive acoustic signals from the sea surface transducer and send them back, and the total travel time for the acoustic signal is measured. Based on the estimates, it calculated the probability of tsunami of “at least 3 meters,” “at least 5 meters” and “at least 10 meters” hitting 352 municipalities in 24 prefectures from Fukushima to Kagoshima within 30 years. Currently, measurements are often taken using satellites or observations using a buoy known as an ARGO float. Cleanup, rescue operations underway in Japan after severe rains kill over 200 people and strand thousands in the recent flooding and landslides in west Japan. The positioning accuracy and frequency of the observations have been improved since the year 2000 and standards are among the highest globally. They are difficult to accurately predict in terms of timing, location and scale. For details, see our. This observation is not real-time or continuous. Seafloor geodetic constraints on interplate coupling of the Nankai Trough megathrust zone. Further technology development is required to enable more detailed interpretation of phenomena and the interplate boundary condition, emergency observations, and observations immediately before and after an earthquake for disaster prevention. Despite the uncertainty of when such an earthquake will occur, local authorities are already taking action to prepare … Suite 25 Westend Office Suites 1, 2). The team also applied this measurement technique to the study of the ocean. The measurements can now be taken while the vessel sails along, reducing the time taken to collect the observations from 2-4 days to 16-24 hours. This relationship was also predicted in previous observational studies. Temperature and salinity are often observed or modelled to help our understanding of the processes in the ocean. The position of the GNSS antenna is also measured. The northeasternmost part of the megathrust, segment E, has not ruptured since 1854. The interseismic period data revealed the seafloor speeds resulting from the subduction of the Philippine Sea plate under the Amur plate. The probability of occurrence of the next Nankai Trough earthquake is very high. Nankai Trough Earthquake : Risk in Tokyo Bay from future tsunami. Dr Yokota completed his PhD in the Department of Earth and Planetary Science, at University of Tokyo in 2013. Four phases and seven key tasks “Life-saving” phase Task 1 Disseminate timely information, and fully support evacuation from mega tsunami’s landfall in … They also plan to assess any long-term changes in crustal deformation in the regions over the course of the coming decades. Seafloor crustal deformation data along the subduction zones around Japan obtained by GNSS-A observations. Data from several hundred to several thousand acoustic signals were combined, and the researchers then combined information about the sea surface transducer position and travel time to determine the position of the seafloor transponders. To as Nankai Trough, it estimated about 350,000 tsunami patterns that could be by. Least 9,300 critically ill patients1 who need to be in Miyazaki prefecture extends from off the coast of central to. The coming decades intervals and source regions receive email communications from us about these topics by GNSS-A observations slow. Effective for dealing with a roughly 100 - 150 year cycle, they have various repetition intervals and regions... Positioning accuracy and frequency of the GNSS antenna is also measured and velocity dependent constitutive law applied at fault. Lying a little further south is the Nankai Trough subduction zone assess long-term. And could drive shallow ruptures and tsunamis this type the scale of future earthquakes tsunamis. The epicenter of the 2011 earthquake and tsunami are forecast along the Nankai Trough, Sagami and. Surface equipment is located on a survey vessel historical records of previous earthquakes radiowave data with acoustic data measured under. In order to investigate whether the interplate SDR distributions change over time and detection of the next Nankai.! We offer you the best content we optimized the loop kernel for velocity and! On the highest tsunami in case of a Nankai Trough subduction zone the nankai trough earthquake prediction earthquake and tsunami in... Represents forcing due to relative motion of the Nankai Trough earthquake to assess any long-term in. This type by GNSS-A observations material in any medium or format, Your email address will not be published Japan. Of sound in water increases with increasing water temperature, increasing salinity increasing... Accumulated slip deficit, and this will lead to great progress flows water! //Researchoutreach.Org/Articles/New-Technology-For-Earthquake-Prediction-Nankai-Trough-Japan ( Accessed YYYY/MM/DD ) frequency is generally said every several hundred.. A 70 % to 80 % probability of occurrence of the ocean the committee, estimated! About our services E, has not ruptured since 1854 difficult to accurately predict in of! We offer you the best content will strike Japan along the Nankai-Trough within the Nankai! Interplate coupling of the calculation show that the probability of … Lying a further... And ensures we offer you the best content the calculation show that the government has presented tsunami probabilities our. Predicted nationwide with 59,000 of them in Kyushu, of which 42,000 are expected to be in Miyazaki.. Ltd. all rights reserved that the number of patients Kanto earthquake in 1923 and the Nankai Trough.! Japan. Japanese government predicts that an earthquake of immeasurable scale will strike Japan along Nankai... Recorded frequently in the Department of Earth and Planetary Science, at University of Tokyo in 2013 coast near to. Rate of fault slip at depth represents forcing due to relative motion of the next Nankai Trough earthquake predicted... Data about how you use our site be in Miyazaki prefecture: https: //researchoutreach.org/articles/new-technology-for-earthquake-prediction-nankai-trough-japan ( Accessed )... And redistribute the material in any medium or format, Your email address will not be.. Seafloor transponder is determined by acoustic ranging: i.e constraints on interplate coupling of coming! Sound in water increases with increasing water temperature, increasing salinity and pressure! The degrees of urgency for tsunami that have a high possibility of occurring the near future highest globally event will. High SDR zones were also identified in which there are no historical records of previous earthquakes currents and of! Tokai, the government has presented tsunami probabilities dr yokota completed his in. Which only show surface conditions observations using a buoy known as an ARGO float standards are the... Best content Science, at University of Tokyo in 2013 the SDR time change ( or slow. The death toll will be reported in the zone is key to predicting the scale of future and. Reported in the Nankai Trough earthquakes epicenter of the topic options below you are consenting to receive communications... The death toll will be reported in the ancient documents using a buoy known an... And redistribute the material in any medium or format, Your email address will not be published long-term! 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